(NewsNation) — It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election, and both candidates have several paths to get there.
Across the seven swing states, former President Donald Trump’s best odds are in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, which means the Sun Belt could be key to a Republican victory.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris could get to 270 by winning the so-called “blue wall” — specifically, the three northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. She’s currently favored in Michigan and almost dead even in the other two.
NewsNation’s election partner, Decision Desk HQ, shows Trump with a 54% chance of winning and Harris with a 46% chance as of Nov. 1.
Here are four possible paths to victory on Election Day.
Election odds in every 2024 swing state
Trump: The sunbelt path to victory
Swing state breakdown:
Trump wins: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
Harris wins: Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin
Electoral votes:
Trump: 281 ✔
Harris: 257
How likely is it?
This is Trump’s most likely path to victory. The former president is currently favored in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — three states that have tended to vote Republican since the 1980s. If Trump wins those, he would only have to take one of the blue wall states — either Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin — to get to 270.
Current polling suggests his best bet is Pennsylvania, where Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 53% chance of victory as of Nov. 1. If that happens, Trump could lose Arizona and still win the election.
Here’s which counties will decide the 2024 election
Historically, Republicans have done well in Georgia and North Carolina, particularly among higher-income white voters, but the winning formula could look different this time.
“The coalition that Trump is building in these states is more of a multiracial working-class coalition versus the strongest area for him in these states used to be in affluent exurbs,” said Zachary Donnini, a data scientist at Decision Desk HQ.
Harris: The blue wall holds
Swing state breakdown:
Harris wins: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Trump wins: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina
Electoral votes:
Harris: 270 ✔
Trump: 268
How likely is it?
For Harris, the clearest path to 270 is winning the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The three were reliably Democratic until Trump turned them red in 2016.
Four years later, Joe Biden flipped them back, a sign Trump’s win may have been an anomaly rather than the new norm.
One reason for Democratic optimism: newcomers to the three northern battleground states.
“[Those three states] are shifting to the left relative to the nation as a whole, and a lot of this comes down to migration patterns in the past four years,” Donnini said.
A recent New York Times analysis underscores that point. It found that newcomers to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have tended to be more Democratic than their neighbors in recent years.
Harris is currently favored in Michigan but is slightly behind in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Nov. 1).
Trump: A crack in the blue wall
Swing state breakdown:
Trump wins: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin
Harris wins: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania
Electoral votes:
Trump: 272 ✔
Harris: 266
How likely is it?
With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the top battleground prize, but if Trump wins in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — where polls show him ahead — he can afford to lose the Keystone State by winning Wisconsin.
In other words, it doesn’t matter which northern battleground state he flips so long as he wins across the Sun Belt.
“For Trump, just winning Georgia and North Carolina gives him a lot of different options for how he can win the presidency,” Donnini said.
A solid performance in the Milwaukee suburbs, the so-called WOW counties — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — could be all Trump needs to win Wisconsin. Those areas have remained more Republican than similar Midwestern suburbs but still moved leftwards in the Trump Era.
Harris: The road through the South
Electoral votes:
Harris: 279 ✔
Trump: 259
Swing States:
Harris wins: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina
Trump wins: Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
How likely is it?
There’s a 19% chance Harris wins Georgia and North Carolina, in which case she could afford to lose one, potentially two, blue wall states.
For that to happen, Harris will likely have to perform better with Black voters than she’s expected to. Another winning formula: Suburbanites around metro Atlanta and metro Charlotte continue to move left.
While it’s not the most likely scenario, a Harris win in North Carolina and Georgia would bode well for her chances in other swing states.
“If she’s winning her weaker states, she’s very likely to win the strong ones,” Donnini said.
