EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) — Like several House races along the border, the Senate races can also be key to determining who takes control of Congress in the new year.
However, while some of the House races are being described as toss-ups with just days to go before the election, some Senate candidates appear to hold more comfortable leads ahead of Election Day.
At least one, however, finds themselves in a close fight to the end.
On this week’s episode of Border Report Live, host Chip Brestwer and Border Report correspondents Julian Resendiz, Salvador Rivera and Sandra Sanchez break down the four U.S. Senate races from the four border states.
Texas: Cruz vs. Allred
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is facing his biggest challenge yet from U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas.
Polls show Cruz with a razor-thin lead over Allred. Cruz has served two terms in the Senate. Allred is a three-term congressman from Dallas and a former football star at Baylor University in Waco.
A recent Emerson College/The Hill poll found Cruz has support from 48% of likely voters, while Allred has support from 47%. A New York Times/Siena poll surveyed 1,180 likely voters and found support for Cruz at 50%; Allred at 46%. Internal polling by Allred’s camp this week calls the race a dead heat.
Border Report spoke with Allred on Wednesday when he toured the border in McAllen. He says border security and the economy are among the most important issues for voters, along with Medicare, Social Security and women’s reproductive rights.
Political Science Professor Andrew Smith of the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley says Cruz has not been popular since his second term in 2018 when former Congressman Beto O’Rourke gave him a run. Cruz narrowly won that race by about 219,000 votes, or 2.6% of the votes.
Smith says Cruz is in “quote “serious danger” of losing.
Democrats want another seat as they’re likely to lose a seat in Montana where Republican Tim Sheehy leads over Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in polls. In West Virginia, Independent Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring and Republican Gov. Jim Justice is expected to win that seat.
Smith says Allred has run a centrist campaign and has proven he has opposed the Biden administration on many issues that could pull conservative Texans to vote for him. Although Smith says Allred’s position on border security isn’t that well known.
Cruz is criticized by Allred for leaving the state during the Winter Storm in 2021 for a vacation in Cancun, Mexico.
Cruz says Allred isn’t tough enough on border security. Cruz is backed by the National Border Patrol Council, the Border Patrol Union.
Cruz plans to be in McAllen and El Paso on Sunday campaigning on the border.
Arizona: Lake vs. Gallego
Republican Kari Lake, a former television personality who lost the gubernatorial race during the last election, has been all over Ruben Gallego, the Democrat, when it comes to immigration and an alleged “open border” in southern Arizona.
Both are in the race to replace Independent Kyrsten Sinema, who decided back in March not to run for re-election.
This combination of images shows, from left, Republican Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake on July 30, 2024, and opponent, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., on Oct, 9, 2024, both in Phoenix. (AP Photo Ross Franklin, left; and Cheryl Evans/Arizona Republic via AP, File)
In a debate earlier this month, sponsored by “Clean Elections,” a state agency, Lake attacked Gallego and his party for three years of mass crowds by the border wall at places like Yuma and Lukeville.
Gallego, a Marine Iraq veteran, says Lake is in lockstep with former President Donald Trump, whom he says torpedoed an immigration compromise earlier this year. let’s listen
New Mexico: Heinrich vs. Domenici
In New Mexico, the GOP has drafted someone they said would be a formidable candidate to unseat Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich.
Nella Domenici is the daughter of a political institution, the late former Sen. Pete Domenici.
She is bent on protecting New Mexico’s oil and gas industry and has expressed a clear position on abortion, an issue Democrats are using extensively to attack Republicans in this election.
Nella Domenici says the states have a right to decide on reproductive rights and that she will not vote in favor of a comprehensive federal ban.
However, the polls are being kind to Heinrich so far despite suggestions by Domenici that he’s planning to quit in a couple of years to run for governor of New Mexico.
California: Schiff vs. Garvey
In California, the race for U.S. Senate is expected to be an easy victory for Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff, of Los Angeles.
His opponent is Steve Garvey, best known for his days as a first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres.
But it appears his success on the diamond is not translating into votes for his campaign.
Most polls predict Garvey is going to lose by a lot.
“This race is noncompetitive,” Jessica Taylor tells the Sacramento Bee.
Taylor is the Senate and gubernatorial editor for the independent Cook Political Report.
A poll conducted by Emerson College of likely voters has Schiff with a 23-point advantage.
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And according to the Sacramento Bee, the Public Policy Institute of California has Schiff winning by a 63 to 37 percent margin.
