(NewsNation) — Voters will likely not know the outcome of the presidential election come election night or even for days depending on how close the race gets in critical swing states, political experts say.
It took nearly five days before the race was called by major news organizations for President Joe Biden in 2020 due in part to states being overwhelmed with increased mail in ballots during the pandemic.
Some states have updated laws to help expedite that process to avoid a 2020 repeat, but many others remain on the same timeline, which could still stretch final tallies.
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“While we have a national election, it’s not administered nationally,” Shawn Donahue, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo, told NewsNation. “Elections are run or conducted at the state and local levels, so that means that we have a lot of variation.”
How long before we know the results of the presidential election?
Several variables will affect the timeframe on an apparent winner, including how close the race is, the amount of mail-in ballots and how quickly electors can start counting, Donahue said.
The biggest factor is how close the election is because if it’s tight, we will need to wait for every vote to be counted.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have been polling neck-and-neck according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecasts.
States have moved up timelines
Delays during the 2020 election occurred due to higher mail-in ballots which took time to tally but since then, several states including Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Georgia have moved up timelines to start counting.
In 2020, more than 43% of votes were mailed in as the coronavirus pandemic led states to greatly expand mail-in balloting and early voting, according to a federal report.
This took days and as a result, most states updated or changed laws to allow for a head start on preparing mail-in or absentee ballots before election day, according to the Center for Election Innovation & Research.
In Michigan, lawmakers passed rules to allow absentee ballot counting up to eight days before the election and in Nevada officials can begin counting mail ballots on Oct. 21.
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Pennsylvania doesn’t allow offices to begin opening mail-in ballots until 7am on Election Day so it could take a longer time to finish.
But Donahue says there likely won’t be as many mail-in ballots this time around which means results will be quicker than they were in 2020.
Some states where early numbers could emerge are North Carolina, Michigan, and potentially Wisconsin where officials can get a head start, Donahue said.
“But we’ll have to see what the volumes are and if counties actually start doing that in the morning, or do they wait till the polls close,” he added.
Delays may happen in Nevada and Arizona which typically don’t move as fast on counting, he said.
“It’s nothing particularly nefarious. A lot of the states in the West don’t have that much in-person Election Day voting, and it just takes them a while to get through the ballots.”
Election officials publish unofficial results after the polls close on Election Day. Those results will fluctuate as in-person, mail-in, provisional, overseas and military ballots are counted.
Could candidates cause delays in election counting process?
Legal challenges by either candidate would not delay the counting process, but it could take the certification process closer to its deadline, Donahue said.
Under the Election Reform Act of 2022, each state must issue a certificate of ascertainment, which contains a final certified vote tally, no later than Dec. 11, six days before the Electoral College meets.
As election day draws closer, Trump has revved up claims that if he loses the election, it’s due to cheating, and has vowed to mount legal challenges.
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“They’re going to cheat. They cheat. That’s all they want to do is cheat, and when you see this, it’s the only way they’re going to win,” Trump said during a rally in Wisconsin, reported The New York Times. “And we can’t let that happen and we can’t let it happen again.”
During the 2020 election, delays in counting due to mail-in ballots were used by Trump to fuel false claims that the election was stolen.
As a result, counting will be even more careful this year, John Mark Hansen, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, said in an email to NewsNation.
“This year, there may be a tendency to do the count even more carefully because of all the misinformation Trump is spreading about fraud. Caution means there could be more widespread delays – but not because anything nefarious is happening.”
