(NewsNation) — The 2024 presidential race can be summed up in a single phrase: “It’s anybody’s ballgame.”
NewsNation’s election partner Decision Desk HQ shows former President Donald Trump with a 52% chance of winning and Vice President Kamala Harris with a 48% chance as of midday Oct. 25.
Here’s which counties will decide the 2024 election
Famed polling expert Nate Silver currently shows Harris with a 1.3-point lead nationally but slightly behind in several key battleground states.
“In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver wrote in a recent New York Times op-ed.
Those seven states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — will ultimately decide the election.
Here’s what the polls currently show in each.
Note: This story will be updated as polling changes.
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Arizona
Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):
Trump: 58%
Harris: 42%
Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):
Trump: 49.3%
Harris: 47.3%
Who has the momentum?
Silver’s model suggests Harris had a slight lead in Arizona at the end of August. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight showed the two candidates tied as recently as mid-September.
Over the past month, Trump has opened up a narrow two-point advantage in the state.
What to watch:
About 1 in 4 Arizona voters are Latino, and Trump has made inroads with that group, particularly among men.
Harris will try to improve on Democrats’ performance with suburbanites around Phoenix, particularly “John McCain Republicans,” many of whom have rejected Trump.
Georgia
Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):
Trump: 62%
Harris: 38%
Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):
Trump: 49.0%
Harris: 47.6%
Who has the momentum?
Harris had a slight advantage in early September, but since then, Trump has pulled ahead. He currently holds a +1.4 polling lead according to Silver’s model and a +1.6 advantage per FiveThirtyEight.
What to watch:
If Trump has improved among Black voters, as polls show, then that will likely show up in Georgia, one of the most racially diverse swing states.
Meanwhile, Harris needs to perform well in the growing suburbs around metro Atlanta, which have turned increasingly blue in recent elections.
Michigan
Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):
Harris: 58%
Trump: 42%
Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):
Harris: 48.1%
Trump: 47.3%
Who has the momentum?
A month ago, polls showed Harris with a two-point lead in the state; now, the two candidates are separated by less than a point.
What to watch:
Michigan is home to more than 200,000 Muslim registered voters, and over the past year, Muslims’ support for the Democratic Party has dropped. Much of that is due to frustration at the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
It remains to be seen how many of those voters will shift Trump’s way, but they could have a major impact on the outcome.
Nevada
Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):
Harris: 52%
Trump: 48%
Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):
Harris: 48.0%
Trump: 47.7%
Who has the momentum?
Nevada is another state where Trump has recently closed the gap, and he’s now within 0.3 points, according to Silver’s model. A month ago, Harris had a one-point lead.
What to watch:
Like Arizona, Nevada has a significant share of Latino voters, which could swing things either way in the state’s population center, Clark County.
Both candidates have tried to appeal to the state’s service and hospitality workers, promising to eliminate taxes on tips.
North Carolina
Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):
Trump: 66%
Harris: 34%
Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):
Trump: 48.8%
Harris: 47.6%
Who has the momentum?
Trump currently holds a 1.3-point polling advantage, a slight improvement from his 0.6-point lead a month ago, according to FiveThirtyEight.
What to watch:
Trump has won North Carolina in each of the last two elections, but Democrats have been gaining ground, particularly in major population centers like Mecklenburg and Wake counties.
If Harris can improve in those areas, Democrats have a chance to win the state for the first time since Barack Obama in 2008.
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Pennsylvania
Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):
Trump: 52%
Harris: 48%
Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):
Trump: 48.2%
Harris: 48.0%
Who has the momentum?
Pennsylvania is the swingiest swing state and likely the most important. At this point, the two are roughly tied. In early September, Harris and Trump were neck and neck before Harris opened up a slight lead as the month progressed.
Since then, Trump has pulled even and currently holds a 0.2-point polling lead, per Silver’s model.
What to watch:
In 10 of the last 12 elections, the winner of Pennsylvania has gone on to win the race. In some ways, it’s the place where every election narrative collides — a microcosm of the U.S. at large.
Both candidates are competing for the state’s fast-growing Hispanic community. Turnout among Black voters in the heavily Democratic Philadelphia area could also play an outsized role. There are also the swing counties themselves, historically blue-collar areas like Erie County that could go either way.
Wisconsin
Chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ (as of Oct. 25):
Trump: 53%
Harris: 47%
Nate Silver polling averages (as of Oct. 24):
Harris: 48.5%
Trump: 48.0%
Who has the momentum?
Harris has a half-point lead according to Silver’s model, but again, that’s tighter compared to a month ago when she led by about two points.
What to watch:
The traditionally red Milwaukee suburbs, the so-called “WOW counties,” have become less so in recent elections. If Harris can build on Democrats’ gains in those areas — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — she could win the state.
On the other hand, if Democratic voters don’t turn out in Milwaukee County — and Trump holds his lead in rural areas — the former president could recreate his 2016 victory that saw the state turn red for the first time since 1984.
