Vice President Harris’s campaign is going into Tuesday’s debate leaning into her image as an underdog after recent polling showed her running neck and neck with former President Trump.
While both candidates are under pressure to move the needle with the debate, Harris is tempering expectations and signaling to voters that, despite the energy among Democrats about her candidacy, she has plenty more ground to make up before November.
“Since she became the nominee, Vice President Harris has considered herself the underdog in this race. She continues to campaign with that mentality. A lot of work to do in these last 50+ days,” Harris spokesperson Brian Fallon said on the social platform X.
A New York Times poll published Sunday found Trump narrowly leading Harris among likely voters nationally, 48 percent to 47 percent. The findings were within the poll’s margin of error, and the result was largely the same as a Times poll published days after President Biden dropped out of the race and Harris replaced him as the Democratic nominee.
The same poll found Harris and Trump polling in a dead heat in five out of seven battleground states expected to determine the winner in November, with Harris narrowly ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan.
The poll served as a reality check for some Democrats, who have been riding high since Harris replaced Biden atop the ticket. Harris has drawn huge, energetic crowds at rallies, shattered fundraising records and inspired confidence among party members who had soured on Biden’s chances of keeping the White House.
“There are only two ways to run a healthy campaign: unopposed or scared,” said Ivan Zapien, a former official of the Democratic National Committee. “Pointing out that they are underdogs is the truth, and it helps focus people to help with big or small efforts. It’s all cumulative at this point, and you can’t add time to the clock, so getting everyone to contribute is what matters.”
The Harris team has tried to temper expectations about the debate, warning that Trump will lie on stage and arguing that the vice president will be at a disadvantage because each candidate’s microphone will be muted while the other is speaking.
Harris aides have also pointed out that Trump has a wealth of experience, having participated in presidential debates in 2016, 2020 and in June of this year against Biden.
The Trump campaign has also not shied away from arguing Harris faces a tougher task in Tuesday’s debate, noting she will have to defend her record and will face millions of voters for the first time since becoming the nominee.
“She’s been wrapped in bubble wrap since securing the nomination, so I think she’s got a far higher bar that she has to clear because a lot of people haven’t seen her pressed with straightforward questions about her record,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said on a call organized by the Trump campaign.
Gaetz, who called Trump’s June debate against Biden the “most dominant performance” in history, argued the former president would be successful Tuesday if he ties Harris to her record.
Harris said in a new interview that Trump doesn’t have a floor for how low he will go and Americans “should be prepared for the fact that he is not burdened by telling the truth.”
The vice president’s campaign pushed for the debate rules to allow for hot mics, which they thought would offer opportunities for Harris to challenge Trump or for the two to have quick back-and-forth moments.
Tuesday’s debate is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for Harris as she seeks to define her candidacy to viewers, some of whom will have unformed opinions of her. It is also potentially her last best chance to create major movement in the race, as early voting will begin in several states this month. There is no second presidential debate currently on the calendar.
The Times poll found that 28 percent of likely voters said they felt they needed to know more about Harris, while only 9 percent said they needed to know more about Trump. Ahead of the debate, Harris added policy positions to her campaign website, giving voters a glimpse into what her plans for a potential administration would be.
“Donald Trump has been running for president every day for nearly a decade and Kamala Harris has been running for a matter of weeks — that alone makes her an underdog,” said Adam Abrams, a communications official on former President Obama’s 2008 campaign.
“The Harris campaign has seized that mantle, successfully casting Trump as the incumbent, and giving her a chance to articulate a fresh vision for the country, which is one that voters prefer to Trump’s brand of grievance politics,” added Abrams, a partner at Seven Letter, a strategic communications firm.
A former Harris aide said the campaign has framed her as the underdog “since the moment she started running, because it’s clear that it’s going to be a close race,” adding that the campaign is not taking anything for granted, highlighted by the vice president’s busy travel schedule.
“The polls continue to show the point they’ve been making from the outset: She is the underdog and it’s going to be a close election,” the former aide said.
In an average of national polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, the vice president is leading the former president by 3.3 percentage points, with Trump garnering 46.1 percent support to Harris’s 49.4 percent support.
With the race so close, and expected to remain so for the next two months, Democrats are warning that the “final yards” are the most pivotal.
“For those who were irritated a month ago when I warned Dems about ‘irrational exuberance,’ I caution against irrational despair now,” David Axelrod, a former senior adviser in the Obama White House, posted on X. “Polls vary and fluctuate. That’s why there is this thing called ‘the margin of error.’ The Electoral College is challenging for Dems & the final yards will be hard fought. But this is a pretty much a toss-up race.”
