(NewsNation) — Outlier polling results show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by at least three percentage points in Iowa.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey is a far cry from other pollsters’ predictions based on recorded voting habits. The former president won Iowa by eight points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016.
The poll’s architect, J. Ann Selzer said her “polling forward” methodology differs from others’ because she focuses on future electorates rather than past trends. Although she has a strong record of accuracy, Selzer acknowledged she could be wrong, but feels confident in her prediction.
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“When you see a number like this, of course, you’re going to dig in and try to see if there’s anything else in the poll that would cause us to have concerns about it,” Selzer said. “And by the end of a long conversation, we were good.”
Trump seemed to take issue with the results, taking to Truth Social to reference a “heavily skewed poll” by “a Trump Hater.”
“No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump,” Trump wrote in a Sunday post. “In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!”
Selzer rebuffed Trump’s comments, citing her polling during the previous election cycle.
“I didn’t totally call it wrong last time,” she said. “We called it for Trump last time. So it’s the same methodology, just a different outcome. I don’t know that he would have called me a Trump lover the last time, but I’m no more a Trump lover than I am a Trump hater.”
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Selzer’s polling noticeably strays from her peers’ predictions, however.
NewsNation’s partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) predicts Trump has a 92% chance of winning Iowa.
Before 2016, Iowa voted Democratic in six of the previous seven elections, except for former President George W. Bush’s narrow victory in 2004.
The midwestern state swung in favor of Donald Trump in 2016 by a margin of 9.4% — a shift of more than ten points to the right compared to the national average, according to DDHQ.
The poll points to women 65 and older as a key demographic pushing Harris forward. The state of Democracy and abortion rights are among their top concerns, Selzer said.
“Keep in mind that this summer is when Iowa’s six-week abortion ban went into effect,” she said. “So the voters have had a chance to live with that and sort of see how that’s working. And some of them are now getting off the bench, coming into play in terms of saying they’re going to vote, and abortion may be a key part of that.”
