(NewsNation) — A Donald Trump victory is seen as better for the stock market and gold while a Kamala Harris win is expected to be better for housing costs, according to a new Bloomberg survey.
Respondents to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey think American wealth will grow regardless of who takes the White House but their confidence varies across different investments.
The S&P 500 is up roughly 22% year to date and more respondents (38%) see stock market gains accelerating under Trump, compared to Harris (13%).
Current election odds in every 2024 swing state
With that said, research shows there isn’t a clear connection between the outcome of a presidential election and stock market performance over the long term.
“The historical data suggests that economic and inflation trends, more so than election outcomes, tend to have a stronger, more consistent relationship with market returns,” a recent U.S. Bank analysis noted.
Earlier this year, the value of a gold bar hit $1 million for the first time and 57% of survey respondents expect the price of gold to be higher a year from now if Trump wins versus 45% who felt the same about Harris.
For potential homebuyers, however, a Harris victory is seen more positively. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.54% last week, according to Freddie Mac. By the end of a Harris term, the median estimate for that rate is 5.5% according to respondents, compared to 5.9% under Trump.
Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’ views on the economy
Housing affordability has become a major topic on the campaign trail and both candidates have put forward different plans to address the issue.
Meanwhile, former President Trump is also expected to be better for Bitcoin, respondents said.
Bloomberg’s weekly MLIV Pulse survey was conducted from Oct. 21 to Oct. 25 and included portfolio managers, economists and retail investors. Respondents were Bloomberg News terminal and online readers worldwide who chose to engage with the survey.
What do other polls show?
The economy has consistently ranked as the top issue in this year’s election and Trump has generally polled better on that topic but on specifics, voters are mixed.
The latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing state voters shows more people trust Trump (50%) than Harris (46%) on the economy overall. Specifically, respondents trusted Trump more than Harris on stock market performance (49% to 37%), interest rates (47% to 42%) and gas prices (50% to 41%).
However, swing state voters trusted Harris more than Trump on housing costs (48% to 43%), pay raises (44% to 42%) and health care costs (51% to 42%). They also think Harris will be better at helping the middle class (50% to 41%).
The two candidates were deadlocked on taxes and unemployment, according to the poll which was conducted online from Oct. 16 to Oct. 20 and surveyed 5,308 registered voters in seven swing states.
Here’s what other surveys show about voters’ views on the candidates and the economy:
New York Times/Siena Poll (Oct. 20 to Oct. 23)
Expected to do a better job at handling the economy
Trump: 52%
Harris: 45%
Financial Times/University of Michigan Ross School of Business survey (Oct. 17 to Oct. 21)
Trust more to handle the economy
Trump: 44%
Harris: 43%
Polling across the seven battleground states, shows Trump and Harris are roughly tied overall. The former president is narrowly favored in Georgia and North Carolina, while the vice president has a slight polling advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin.
See the current odds in every battleground state here.
