(The Hill) — Democrats closed out their convention in Chicago last week, catapulting the 2024 campaign cycle — the presidential race and down-ballot contests — into the final stretch before Election Day.
At this point, the fate of the House majority hangs in the balance.
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President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race, and Vice President Kamala Harris’ quick ascension as the Democratic nominee, upended the 2024 election, shaking up predictions for White House and congressional contests. Decision Desk HQ paused its House forecast after the “unprecedented” change at the top of the ticket.
Democrats, nonetheless, are hopeful that they can flip at least four seats to retake the majority, while Republicans are confident that they will keep — and expand — their edge in the chamber.
Here are five House races to watch this cycle.
New York’s 22nd Congressional District
In 2022, Republicans flipped four seats in New York that were central to taking control of the House. Now, Democrats say their trek back to the majority runs through the Empire State.
Key to that plan is New York’s 22nd Congressional District, which is represented by first-term GOP Rep. Brandon Williams. Williams kept the seat in Republican hands in 2022 when he beat his Democratic opponent to succeed former Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), who was retiring.
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But the district — which includes Syracuse and Utica — is now one of Democrats’ top pickup opportunities.
Williams’ seat, one of the 17 GOP-held districts Biden won in 2020, is rated “lean Democrat” by the nonpartisan handicapper Cook Political Report. The incumbent will take on two-term Democratic state Sen. John Mannion in November.
The contest has taken on an outsized interest in Washington, a nod to its importance in the race for control of the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) campaigned with Williams in February, saying his race “may very well be one of the decision points on whether we keep the majority, grow the majority in the House.” The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), meanwhile, is supporting Mannion as part of its “Red to Blue” program.
Williams and Mannion will meet face-to-face in four debates ahead of Election Day, with the first set for Oct. 1.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
It is a rematch in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), a first-term lawmaker from the Evergreen State, will once again take on Republican Joe Kent, whom she defeated in 2022 in an upset victory for Democrats.
Kent, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, beat then-Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) in the GOP primary, knocking out a Republican who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. In the general election, however, Gluesenkamp Perez, who was the owner of an auto repair shop, reigned victorious over Kent by less than 1 percentage point, flipping the district — which Trump won in 2020 — blue.
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Cook Political Report rates round two of the Gluesenkamp Perez-Kent match-up a “toss up.”
Gluesenkamp Perez has worked to build a reputation as a moderate throughout her first term in Congress, frequently breaking from her Democratic colleagues on various votes. More recently, she drew headlines amid the debacle over Biden’s candidacy, suggesting to a local outlet that the president should resign from office and then refusing to endorse Harris.
The congresswoman also made news this week for being one of several vulnerable Democrats who skipped the party’s convention in Chicago, opting to spend time in her district and concentrate on her reelection bid — a fact that Republicans seized on.
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The National Republican Congressional Committee set up a mobile billboard at the convention calling out Gluesenkamp Perez and other Democrats for skipping the event. The billboard read “have you seen me? Harris enablers.”
Kent, meanwhile, has emphasized his closeness to Trump. Earlier this month, the Republican argued that Trump’s adversaries censor him because “when people hear directly from him they can’t help but like him. His policies aren’t radical, they are common sense. This is what they fear.”
New York’s 17th Congressional District
Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) is on a mission to reclaim his perch in the lower chamber.
Jones, who was defeated in a messy Democratic primary in 2022, is running against first-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) for his old seat in a race that is one of the most competitive House contests this cycle.
The Cook Political Report rates the seat a “toss up.” Lawler is one of the 17 Republicans who represent a district Biden won in 2020.
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Jones was elected to represent New York’s 17th District in 2020, but, after redistricting, opted to run in the Empire State’s 10th District to avoid a race against then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), who headed the DCCC that cycle. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) beat Jones in the primary.
Since reemerging on the political scene, Jones — who was one hailed as a progressive rising star — has appeared to moderate his stances as he vies for his old seat in a swing district. The former congressman, for example, endorsed the primary challenger against Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) — George Latimer, who won — because of the incumbent’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war. The district has a sizable Jewish population.
Lawler, meanwhile, has quickly developed a name for himself during his first term on Capitol Hill, making the rounds on cable news and emerging as a leadership ally, particularly during former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) stint at the top of the conference.
Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) is in a fight for his political life as he faces a challenge from Republican Rob Bresnahan, a businessman, in a district Trump won in 2020.
Cartwright, who is listed as one of the DCCC’s front-liners, is beating Bresnahan in the money game: Cartwright has raised $5.66 million this cycle, more than double Bresnahan’s $2.56 million, according to the Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Bresnahan loaned his campaign $400,000 last quarter.
The large numbers were reported as the Democratic Party enjoys a jolt of momentum powered by Harris’s rise to the top of the party’s ticket. While Democrats are hopeful that the excitement on the ground will translate to wins up and down the ballot, leading election handicappers say the effect remains unknown — and that it may not be as helpful for candidates running in some battleground or more conservative districts.
David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report, told The Hill earlier this month that Cartwright, who represents Biden’s hometown of Scranton, Pa., may be one of those candidates.
Cartwright and Bresnahan are set to debate on Oct. 22.
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) announced in February 2023 that she was launching a campaign for the Senate to replace outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), opening up a seat in the state’s competitive 7th Congressional District.
Former Michigan state Sens. Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel Jr. (D) are set to face off in November in a district that has significant implications for control of the House next year. Michigan overall is also a key battleground state in the 2024 presidential race.
Cook Political Report rates the seat a “toss up.” Slotkin defeated Barrett by just more than 5 percentage points in 2022.
The Wolverine State’s 7th District has a checkered political history, both in terms of presidential races and representation in the House. Before Slotkin, a Republican represented the seat, which was previously held by a Democrat. Biden narrowly won the district in 2020, but it was captured by Trump in 2016.
A poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections released last month shows Barrett with a sizable lead over Hertel — 48 percent support to 41 percent — with 11 percent of voters still undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
